My Firm Is Releasing A New Line Of Customizable Stainless Steel Tumblers To The

1.    My firm is releasing a new line of customizable stainless-steel tumblers to the market. We believe that we have an inside line on obtaining licensing from the NCAA for logos to add to these tumblers. 

My company is trying to decide whether to wait one year to find out if the licensing deal happens, or to simply introduce the product now to try and capitalize on the market’s current appetite for overpriced tumblers. That choice needs to be made now, and then one year from now we will know if we have the NCAA licensing. Theoretically, we could abandon the project at that point if we don’t believe it’s worth operating (if we get the NCAA licensing, there is no chance of abandoning the project).

The chance of obtaining the licensing is 50%. Just to be clear, the timeline is: